Pat Cummins finds himself in an odd spot, the man who has shouldered the bowling burden for Australia for so long now risks being a casualty of the very back that made his name the strongest of the strong. With the Ashes imminent in Perth, Cummins has put himself in a race he does not like to lose against, of all nations, not England, but his own return from injury. No longer is the question of whether he can bowl, but whether he should. For it is possible that in the most acute of sporting rivalries that one moment of miscalculating fitness may turn the whole summer’s race.
The Captain’s Balancing Act
Cummins has acknowledged that he is “less likely than likely” will play in the first Test because his back injury is preventing him from doing full workloads in his bowling. He runs every second day and is beginning to work back into bowling preparation, but even he admits that a Test bowler needs at least a month in the nets before he is capable of doing the work necessary for match fitness. The first Test of the Ashes series begins at Perth, November 21 a quick pitch requiring 20 overs of full-hearted tramway service by the fast bowlers.
When Rhythm Meets Reality
Back injuries do not just test the spine: they test rhythmicity, that most intangible pulse that maintains the fast bowler’s action in smoothness, his lengths in uniformity, his follow-through in fearlessness. If he returns too quickly, he is certain to lose pace and to introduce mechanical compensations that may lead to further injury. It is not on the hard cricketing surface of Perth that one will have use for undecided steps. For a captain who has always prided himself on control, the difficulty is in knowing when to let go physically and metaphorically.
Leadership in Limbo
Australia’s biggest headache isn’t just how to replace Cummins’ overs but how to replace his calm. Since 2021, his captaincy has represented calm in chaos, striking a balance between aggression and repose. Without Cummins likely going to be Steven Smith again to lead them, which comes with a whole psychological effect. The bowlers trust Cummins as “one of them”, someone who has got the common experience of the working day. Smith, while very tactically bright, represents a very different emotional tempo.
Numbers Don’t Lie, But They Worry
Since taking over the leadership of the Australian cricket team, Cummins has produced a win-loss ratio of 68% in Tests during his tenure, the best of any Test Captain since Ponting. His own average with the ball in that time has been 22.7, the second-best among active pace bowlers behind only Kagiso Rabada. But take those 20 overs from each innings, and the balance to Australia’s attack is suddenly suspicious, Starc unsettled in rhythm, Hazlewood still coping with workloads, and the all-round options less effective on flat Australian pitches. There is no cause for alarm yet, but the figures are the precursors of caution, the kind that disturbs the selectors most before an opening Test of the Ashes.
Should Cummins miss Perth, it won’t be about “managing injury”; it will be about the maturity of strategy. It is a time in Australian cricket, once obsessed with the after-effects of warriors returning from the wars, that depth of resources and patience have to play a part. Letting the captain enjoy peace in recovery may be the most stimulating decision they make all summer. For the fully-fit return to the fray of Pat Cummins in Brisbane or Adelaide could prove, rest assured, more than just the swinging wedge of the ball. Because it could be the swinging factor in the series!
Key Takeaway:
Sometimes the most decisive delivery is the one you choose not to bowl.
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